On Friday, Raffi submitted a list of demands to Sargsyan. He would recognize Sargsyan’s victory in exchange for, among other things, 1) parliamentary elections, 2) electoral reforms and 3) his people in top government positions. See Raffi’s full list of demands here.
Unsurprisingly Sargsyan said no, but acknowledged that the letter is at least the basis for future dialogue. Sargsyan suggested that Raffi end the hunger strike, rest for a few days and then they can get to business “without fanfare.” Raffi will undoubtedly reject this offer as he’ll lose his two main advantages: the hunger strike that puts pressure on the government to act quickly and the public support that comes with his transparency.
Raffi will give his response today, but his hunger strike must be making his planning and strategizing much harder. At the beginning of these rallies, his style was much more of him taking outsider input but of him being the leader. He must depend more and more on aides as he grows weaker. And, in fact if Sargsyan met with Raffi without the “precondition” of ending the hunger strike, it’s unknown how well Raffi would be able to operate.
Also, Armenian Weekly has a phenomenal analysis of Raffi, as described by US cables. It shows how complicated (and unpredictable) Raffi has been and negates the idea that Raffi is merely a “western puppet.”